Neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

contributed by Youmin Tang and William Hsieh

Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada

The forecast model is a neural-dynamical hybrid coupled model with the assimilation of the NCEP sea level height anomaly data (Tang and Hsieh, 2002), as in our previous forecasts (Tang and Hsieh, 2001).

Fig 1 shows our latest forecasts (initialized using data till the end of May, 2003), indicating that the weak warm sea surface temperature anomalies will continue to drop in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with near-normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific lasting from the winter of 2003 till at least the summer of 2004.

References:

Tang, Y. and W.W. Hsieh, 2001: Neural-dynamic hybrid coupled model forecasts of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin, March, 2001; June, 2001.

Tang, Y. and W.W. Hsieh, 2002. ENSO simulation and prediction in a hybrid coupled model with data assimilation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 81, No.1, 1-19.

Figure caption:

Fig.1: Predicted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of the tropical Pacific. Contour interval is 0.25 degree Celsius, with positive anomalies indicated by solid contours, negative anomalies by dashed contours, and zero by thick contours.